MARKET INTELLIGENCE 市场情报 46 | JNA March/April 2025 由于金价飙升和经济不景气，消费者信心低迷， 2024年对于中国贵金属首饰市场来说是充满挑 战的一年。业内人士估计，疲软市况仍将持续至 2025年，但黄金和铂金首饰行业在创新设计，贵金属的战略 投资吸引力的推动下或有所改善。银饰业则继续面临市场 需求放缓。 铂金的复苏 2024年年初至年底，黄金价格上涨超过26.5%，达到前所 未有的水平。高昂的黄金价格重燃起人们对铂金首饰的兴 趣。世界铂金投资協会(WPIC)最新发布的《铂金季报》指出， During the China International Gold Market Annual Conference in Shenzhen on December 10, 2024, WGC's CEO David Tait highlighted the emergence of hard pure gold jewellery as a standout in China's gold jewellery sector in 2024, thanks to its modern designs and affordability appealing to younger generations. “The new industry standard for hard pure gold jewellery has been announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China for formal execution from May 1, 2025. This will help the industry stay on a sustainable growth path and attract more and younger consumers with contemporary aesthetics and designs,” Tait commented. The gold jewellery sector will rely on innovative ideas and advancement to drive growth, he added. Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist of WGC, North America, pointed out that the US monetary policy and its role in the geopolitical landscape will be crucial factors influencing the gold market in 2025. “Political and administrative policies from the US are going to take the front seat again and probably be the biggest driving force behind global consumer behaviour around gold,” noted Cavatoni. Meanwhile, Joni Teves, precious metal strategist of UBS, said strategic diversification and safe-haven flows, buying from central banks and the relative strength of physical demand even at higher prices have all contributed to gold's resilient prices. Teves also anticipated a sustained gold rally leading to new record highs in 2025, with an average forecast of US$2,800 per ounce and a year-end target of US$2,900 per ounce. “We do not think gold is expensive. Despite how expensive it is to buy gold jewellery right now, we have seen through history that consumers do eventually acclimatise to higher prices,” said Teves. Sluggish silver Chinese demand for silver jewellery is expected to weaken in 2025 as consumers tighten their belts on nonessential items, according to an analysis by the Silver Institute with contribution from Metals Focus, a global precious metals research consultancy. Silver jewellery sales in Western markets, however, will likely remain sturdy, thanks to a price-led shift away from karat gold jewellery and steady performance of branded silver jewellery. “Demand for silver jewellery in China has been declining over the last decade,” Simon Yau, senior consultant of Metals Focus, told JNA. “As Chinese consumers' purchasing power increased, they naturally moved away from silver jewellery and gravitated towards gold.” In addition, the growing emphasis on wealth preservation among Chinese consumers led them to favour gold jewellery over silver as the latter lacks comparable resale value. Yau noted that many silver jewellery companies target younger consumer segments through online platforms. “These consumers tend to see silver jewellery as a fashion accessory. Their purchases are driven by appealing designs and affordable prices for daily wear. They do not focus much on the quality of the metal itself,” he said. Unlike in the gold or platinum jewellery sectors, macroeconomic and geopolitical issues have relatively less impact on silver jewellery demand in China. Investment in silver is likewise subdued. It seems there is no silver bullet to help revitalise silver jewellery demand in a challenging market, but focusing on innovative designs remains crucial for businesses, Yau noted. Despite lacklustre domestic demand, Chinese silver jewellery manufacturers now primarily export products to the US and Europe. They are also exploring opportunities in rural and urban areas, third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as online sales channels.
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