Holiday spending in the US is expected to surpass 2023 figures, owing to sustained momentum and solid economic growth, the National Retail Federation announced.

NRF said holiday sales could grow between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent to US$979.5 billion and US$989 billion in November and December this year. Spending reached US$955.6 billion during the same period last year.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”   

The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s prediction that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent over 2023.

A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8 per cent and 9 per cent to a total of between US$295.1 billion and US$297.9 billion. This figure is up from US$273.3 billion last year. By comparison, lnon-store sales in 2023 rose 10.7 per cent over 2022.

“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz remarked. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.” 

One differentiating characteristic from last year’s holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totalling 26 days. Additional contributing factors this year could include the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton; even though the 2024 US presidential election will take place during the winter holiday season, it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending, noted NRF. 

NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modelling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.